http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2011/08/31/allan_lichtman_never_wrong_pundit_predicts_2012_win_for_obama.html

http://ww2.gazette.net/stories/05272011/policol193154_32542.php

For election predictions, I go to Pollster & look at the State match-ups. The magic number is 270.

The 1972 analogy is apt: The small vocal group then were the McGovernites who seized the Democratic Party from the old machine Dems like ‘Hizzoner’ Dick Daley. I’m not sure how popular Nixon was with the ‘Silent Majority’ at that point but, despite raging inflation and his failure to keep the ‘peace with honor’ pledge on Vietnam, he looked like a saner choice than the wild-eyed George McGovern the mass media portrayed. I could see that happening next year if Perry is nominated — he’s crapshit crazy and scares the beejezus out of retirees and mostly everyone else who isn’t wearing a tea bag on their hat. I’ve read that Perry’s good in debate but, from the clips I’ve seen, he just blusters and changes the subject when caught, often looking like an insincere, bumbling idiot who can’t answer the question, just like the Bush Boy. That gumbo may work in Texas, but will his GOP rivals let him get away with it? We’ll see.

One thing I hope isn’t repeated, of course, is Obama’s reelection in a landslide and subsequent resignation due to a Watergate style scandal. It would kill progressive politics in this country for a generation and the corporations don’t need any help.

What do you think of the comparison to 1972?

Am I seeing more comparisons or is it me finding what I want to find? In each case a small, but extremely vocal, group seizes the nomination of a major party to run against an unpopular President, presiding over a sluggish (at best) economy, with an unpopular war (or two) dragging on. The group insists that they & they alone represent the traditional American Values. The group insists that the very fate of the Republic hinges on the election of their candidate.