For the Democrats, my recent Iowa caucus prediction was Edwards by a hair, Obama second, and Clinton third.
Whoops! Well, my crystal ball was smudgy and tea leaves weak, but Your Ol’ Tattler did get it partly right in the Iowa caucuses: Obama, Edwards and Hillary were the top three on the Dem side, only Obama won with Edwards second instead of the other way around. I was right, however, that Hillary finished more than five points out from the winner; Obama had 38 percent, Hillary 29.
The Tattler’s Gold-Plated Excuse: As I wrote in my last piece:
“Twelve-percenter Bill Richardson is optimistically hoping he’ll edge into the top three, but that’s an impossible dream — still, Bill tossing his voters to one of the frontrunners could make the difference between win and place, so he maintains considerable caucus relevance. He might be striking a deal for a VP nod as we speak.”
After I posted my predictions, Richardson instructed his supporters to go with Obama in those precincts where he didn’t meet the required 15 percent threshold; I’d bet that, along with Kucinich telling his caucus voters the same thing, is what put Barack over the top. Could we be looking at an Obama/Richardson ticket if Barack goes all the way? Count on it — I think the deal was done; Obama knew he had to come out strong in Iowa and whip Hillary or chance fading fast, so he made any bargains necessary to nail this down. It was smart politics and augurs well for Obama the Possible Future Nominee, and a pairing with Richardson would be a good move as well. When accused of ‘inexperience’ by the GOP, he can point to his running mate, oozing decades of the stuff. Also, Gov. Bill wouldn’t overshadow the man at the top of the ticket, but he’s no Dan Quayle embarrassment. Similar to Harold Washington’s game plan when he won as Mayor of Chicago after most experts panned his election as impossible, Obama/Richardson would garner the black and Hispanic vote and enough of the white liberal and independent vote to win, especially in a year when Republicans are as popular as turd blossoms in an inaugural party punch bowl.
Although the Big Media punditry would have you believe otherwise, John Edwards is not out of this yet but, since he is accepting only public campaign financing, he is going to have money problems in New Hampshire and South Carolina, so his chances are growing slim; Hillary is becoming less likely as there aren’t any states in the primary schedule, save New York, that are a lock for her and her 29 percent in Iowa, where she poured a lot of money and had the most professional organization, proved that two-thirds of the Dems don’t want her as president. Biden and Dodd are headed back to the friendly confines of Beltway Washington, heads bowed, hands raw, and asses reddened; they won’t be an issue in the upcoming primary states.
Obama is a smart man and a shrewd politician campaigning on a message of hope for the future; after the disappointments of Gore and Kerry, the rest of us just have to hope that we don’t get fooled again.
Over on the GOP side, I predicted Huckabee by a wide margin, Romney second and Ron Paul third.
I was right on the first two, but it’s inexplicable that porch-statue Basset Hound Fred Thompson, who was exciting no one in Iowa, would take the third slot. I detect the stench of Danish mold here, since Paul has collected the most small-donation money of any Republican in the race and had the most ardent supporters of any GOP candidate; it’s hard to believe that all of those flaming Paulaholics would stay at home on caucus night. The GOP is the corporate party, and the Corporate Elite don’t much care for Paul’s agenda; they also have no qualms about fixing elections, and the Iowa vote would be fairly easy to jiggle in your favor. Huckabee they can live with — he no doubt already received the Ned Beatty call from on high — but Ron Paul is a different can of libertarian worms. If Paul doesn’t do better in New Hampshire, it’s a sure sign the fix is in.
That said, it does the heart good to see a two-tone schmuck like Willy Mitt Romney spend a fortune of his own money to come in second place; it’s enough to make you believe in a Personal God. Even late Thursday the cable news Talking Heads were babbling that Romney’s superior ground game in the Hawkeye state would overwhelm the pathetic Christian Soldiers marching for Mike — as Spit-Take Matthews would say, “Hah!” And the casket is closing on ‘frontrunner’ Rudy Giuliani — he was down bottom-feeding with Duncan Hunter in the final Iowa results. Expect the last nail to go in after he lopes in fourth or fifth in NH and South Carolina — he doesn’t have the money to last until Florida, and he wouldn’t win there anyway. Speaking of Lonesome Fred, expect him to bow out after he’s handed his head in NH, and watch Duncan Donuts quit before that; somehow beady eyes beneath a single Neanderthal eyebrow just didn’t score with voters this season.
Huckabee looks to have the Big Mo and he’s proven snaky as hell; while he was chastised by the BM for refusing to air a negative Romney ad and then showing it to the media at a press conference, he got more free mileage out of their coverage than the ad itself would have gotten, and it drove home the angle that he had ‘a dossier’ of bad stuff on Romney, leaving it up to the voter to imagine how bad that stuff might be. In other words, he played the media and attacked Romney by innuendo and diversion, without dirtying up his choirboy skirts. He was also slapped by the BM for appearing on The Tonight Show Wednesday rather than spending the last hours before the caucuses trudging around Iowa in the cold. That was also smart; more Iowans watched Jay Leno that night than would have seen him at the Keokuk Holiday Inn — more free publicity, and it was national to boot.
Perhaps the RNC has now realized Huckabee would be the toughest Republican for the Dems to beat — Mike, although religiously out of his tree, has the ability to sound remarkably sane in short bursts, and he even snaps at Junior now and then, who is not a popular man outside of corporate newsrooms. Look for Rev. Huck to go all the way but lose it in November — it’s just not a GOP year, and the country is sick and tired of Faith-Based Christopublicans, and even Mike the Mad Monk can’t overcome that.
Oh, no, don’t tell me he’s making another prediction.
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:18:53 -0500
“It’s the War,” Says Iowa to Hillary — And a “Happy Blue Year” To All! …from Michael Moore
January 3, 2007
Friends,
There was no doubt about it. The message from Iowa tonight was simple, but deafening:
If you’re a candidate for President, and you voted for the war, you lose. And if you voted and voted and voted for the war — and never once showed any remorse — you really lose.
In short, if you had something to do with keeping us in this war for four-plus years, you are not allowed to be the next president of the United States.
Over 70% of Iowan Democrats voted for candidates who either never voted for the invasion of Iraq (Obama, Richardson, Kucinich) or who have since admitted their mistake (Edwards, Biden, Dodd). I can’t tell you how bad I feel for Senator Clinton tonight. I don’t believe she was ever really for this war. But she did — and continued to do — what she thought was the politically expedient thing to eventually get elected. And she was wrong. And tonight she must go to sleep wondering what would have happened if she had voted her conscience instead of her calculator.
John Edwards was supposed to have come in third. He had been written off. He was outspent by the other front-runners six to one. But somewhere along the road he threw off the old politico hack jacket and turned into a real person, a fighter for the poor, for the uninsured, for peace. And for that, he came in a surprise second, ending up with just one less delegate than the man who was against the war from the beginning. But, as Joshua Holland of AlterNet pointed out earlier today, Edwards is still the only front-runner who will pull out all the troops and do it as quickly as possible. His speech tonight was brilliant and moving.
What an amazing night, not just for Barack Obama, but for America. I know that Senator Obama is so much more than simply the color of his skin, but all of us must acknowledge — and celebrate — the fact that one of the whitest states in the U.S. just voted for a black man to be our next president. Thank you, Iowa, for this historic moment. Thank you for at least letting us believe that we are better than what we often seem to be. And to have so many young people come out and vote — and vote for Obama — this is a proud moment. It all began with the record youth turnout in 2004 — the ONLY age group that Kerry won — and they came back out tonight en force. Good on every single one of you!
As the only top candidate who was anti-war before the war began, Barack Obama became the vessel through which the people of this Midwestern state were able to say loud and clear: “Bring ‘Em Home!” Most pundits won’t read the election this way because, well, most pundits merrily led us down the path to war. For them to call this vote tonight a repudiation of the war — and of Senator Clinton’s four years’ worth of votes for it — might require the pundit class to remind their viewers and readers that they share some culpability in starting this war. And, like Hillary, damn few of them have offered us an apology.
With all due respect to Senator Obama’s victory, the most important news out of the caucus this evening was the whopping, room-busting turnout of Democrats. 239,000 people showed up to vote Democratic tonight (93% more than in ’04, which was a record year), while only 115,000 showed up to vote Republican. And this is a red state! The Republican caucuses looked anemic. The looks on their faces were glum, tired. As the camera followed some of them into their caucus sites, they held their heads down or turned away, sorta like criminals on a perp walk. They know their days of power are over. They know their guy blew it. Their only hope was to vote for a man who has a direct line to heaven. Huckabee is their Hail Mary pass. But don’t rule him out. He’s got a sense of humor, he’s downhome, and he said that if elected, he’d put me on a boat to Cuba. Hey, a free Caribbean vacation!
Bottom line: People have had it. Iowa will go blue (Happy Blue Year, Hawkeyes!). Whomever your candidate is on the Dem side, this was a good night. Get some sleep. The Republicans won’t go down without a fight. Look what happened when Kerry tried to play nice. So Barack, you can talk all you want about “let’s put the partisanship aside, let’s all get along,” but the other side has no intention of being anything but the bullies they are. Get your game face on now. And, if you can, tell me why you are now the second largest recipient of health industry payola after Hillary. You now take more money from the people committed to stopping universal health care than any of the Republican candidates.
Despite what your answer may be, I was proud to sit in my living room tonight and see you and your family up on that stage. We became a bit better tonight, and on that I will close by saying, sweet dreams — and on to that other totally white state of New Hampshire!
Yours,
Michael Moore
MMFlint@aol.com
MichaelMoore.com
Comment by VTindependent — January 4, 2008 @ 8:24 am
And, unfortunately, it ain’t just the snow.
RS, you have every right to feel proud the Mooreman has responded to YOUR analysis. Like some Reynolds Wrapped, hatted, pundit, Scribe can only responded to your good fortune: “Curse you Red Baron. Foiled again!”
(Scribe knows you got there first, and he got there too late. He’s just playing for, “Ha, ha’s.”
Comment by Ye Olde Scribe — January 4, 2008 @ 10:30 am
RS, Oh yeah, us repubs are such bullies against you poor little sweet nothing democrats. Such bull. No one is more abusive over the years than the Clinton machine.
BTW, look at Huck. He said FairTax and he won. Coincidence?
Perhaps the democratics should add answers to the impending recession to their platform.
The reason the dems came out in force is because they are terrified Hill might win.
Comment by grimgold — January 4, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Grim, a friend just got back from Iowa — read my post here on Bartblog. You’ll like this: Hillary’s campaign was paying for Iowans to come to her speeches! She’d be better off if she got rid of the ‘professionals’ running her campaign and hired some new people with new ideas — Bart wouldn’t mind the money, I bet
Comment by RS Janes — January 5, 2008 @ 7:51 am