BartBlog

Well, Iowa is over and I was right. Obama won, Edwards came in second and Clinton came in third. I do like being right but its time to look back at what happened and try to figure out what might happen in New Hampshire and beyond.

Obama surged in Iowa by getting votes from young people and many people that had never caucused before. The large numbers of younger people and women that caucused for Obama should be troubling for the Clinton campaign. Clinton had banked on women supporting the first legitimate woman to run for the presidency. That never happened. Edwards sucked off the union vote and the populists leaving Clinton with the moderates. Going forward Clinton is going to need to make inroads in all areas to stay viable. If she can’t she’s done.

Edwards came in second again. Not quite what he had hoped for but much better than what could have been. Obama’s win and his second place finish should provide Edwards with the opportunity to become the anti-Obama so to speak. Much is always made about electability and in the end will the Democratic party follow its past successes by nominating a smart Southern white man or a smart Midwestern black man or a smart Northeastern woman. It would seem that in that comparison the smart Southern man would have the clear edge. Think Bill Clinton in ’92 and Jimmy Carter in ’76.

So now what does Clinton do? I would argue that she goes negative hard and fast at Obama and takes her chances with Edwards. I wouldn’t go negative but I think that’s all the Clinton people have left is to attack Obama anyway they can. Clinton will do well in New Hampshire because of her husband’s popularity there but beyond that, to South Carolina for example, she is clearly in trouble.

The wild card still could be Bill Richardson. He got 12% in Iowa and while that isn’t going to get him to the nomination it certainly puts him in the position to be a huge influence. If he releases his people to one particular candidate it would put that one person over the edge. Richardson may be looking for a VP nod and frankly he’s overqualified for the job, but it would make a formidable ticket with Edwards, Clinton or Obama.

This should an interesting five days leading to New Hampshire’s vote and beyond.