The polls say Obama is ahead by 11 points or so, just like New Hampster.
But the Vegas odds are a lot different because in Vegas, money is serious.
The bookies have it Obama 32, Hillary 31 and Edwards 29 – that sounds right to me.
A bookie doesn’t look at a whore like Zogby and take his crap as gospel. A bookie uses his damn head and anybody who puts Obama 11 points ahead of Hillary is going to lose his money.
Obama will most likely come out ahead in Nevada because the caucus system favors him. The demographic of caucus goers closely mirriors Obama’s biggest supporters.
My theory is that Clinton does well in the voting booth because a of reverse Wilder effect. Many Clinton supporters won’t tell other people their preferences for fear of being exposed to unfair criticism. The public nature of the caucuses works to her disadvantage.
Edwards picked up the Reagan ball and ran hard with it. I hear he has spent some of the last few years helping Nevada unions so that might affect Obama’s momentum a little.
Comment by Danger Bear — January 19, 2008 @ 2:20 pm
I think I see a little quiver of the chin,
a little bead of sweat on the temple of the Other America.
Time to go all in.
Comment by Rainlander — January 19, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
They’re starting to cal NV for Clinton. Invoking RR was not a good idea.
I come to bury Reagan, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Ronnie.
Comment by Danger Bear — January 19, 2008 @ 4:52 pm
Obama didn’t fare so well with Democrats but still got the same number of national delegates Clinton did.
Edwards was second in my precinct but rounding gave Obama the same 2 that Edwards got. Clinton and Edwards were rounded down and Obama up.
Comment by zenferret — January 19, 2008 @ 9:07 pm