BartBlog

Man, it’s so easy to get distracted in this whole thing.  Full disclosure?  I’m an Obama guy.  That said, I’m going to just cut to the chase and stipulate that Barack did, in fact, choose to remove his name from the Michigan ballot.  Although I’m not privy to Obama campaign strategy sessions, I would acknowledge the possibility that he did so as some kind of “hat tip” to Iowa.   I would agree that such a strategy would constitute a “political calculation”.  I would submit, however, that Hillary’s choice to leave her name on the ballot also constituted a “political calculation”.

But the premise that Barack “traded” 17 votes for 7 is incorrect.  At the time the Obama camp was developing that strategy, Michigan’s votes were understood to be excluded, so he “traded” 0 votes for 7.  To me, that means he was able to make what amounted to a grandiose gesture to Iowa because the DNC (not Barack and not Hillary)  had decided to punish Michigan and Florida.  I would agree that it was a “calculation” and I would even submit that it was a mis-calculation.

It depends on an extremely broad definition of “campaigning” in Michigan to include the idea that even appearing on the ballot constitutes “campaigning”.  I think having one’s name on the ballot is simply standing for election and does not qualify as “campaigning”.  Therefore, I think Barack’s grandiose gesture to Iowa may have been based upon faulty reasoning in interpreting the DNC’s rules as extending to having one’s name on the ballot.

But…so what?  Barack based his strategy – made his “calculations”, if you will – on his understanding of the rules.  Hillary also selected a strategy – made her own “calculation” – to leave her name on the ballot based on her understanding of the rules.  Whether Barack’s was a clever or faulty strategy in that regard, neither party disputes the fact that everybody understood Michigan’s primary votes would not count and that, it seems to me, is the salient point.  The rules said Michigan’s votes wouldn’t count.  It’s reasonable to accept that the Obama camp would have developed a different strategy had Michigan’s votes been “in play” at the time, although I again acknowledge I am in no way “authorized” to speak for “the Obama camp”.

So what are we really left with?  HE made a calculation; SHE made a calculation.   HIS calculation indicates a belief that the rules that existed at the end of the campaign would be the same as the rules at the beginning of the campaign.  HER calculation left open the possibility that…well…rules change…

But the rules shouldn’t change in the middle of the process and that’s really all there is to it…