Should Senator Hillary Clinton be the Democratic nominee for President? That is a question that is being discussed all over the country as Clinton continues to lead by large margins in national polls. Most of us that follow the campaign know that polls now can be deceiving but one thing is clear, the Clinton campaign surely feels a certain sense of being invulnerable leading into the first series of contests after the first of the year.
There is a problem with all this talk of Clinton as front runner and being a shoo in for the nomination. Polls taken where things really count, in the actual states that have the first primaries and caucuses show a different scenario than the national polls. The new Des Moines Iowa polls shows just six points separating Clinton, Obama and Edwards with Clinton in the lead, and the new Newsweek poll shows a similar spread with Obama in the lead.
What do these Iowa polls mean? Probably nothing right now. They are however, dramatically different than the national polls and that should be unsettling for the Clinton campaign in particular because there are similar numbers coming out of New Hampshire.
Here lies the danger of anointing a front runner so early. With a loss in either Iowa or New Hampshire the Clinton juggernaut would be severely wounded. A loss, no matter what national polls and her handlers say, would create a huge uphill battle similar to what happened to Howard Dean in 2004.
Compounding these new polls are the sense that many people also believe that Clinton would be a lightening rod for conservatives. It has been said that many conservatives would over look Rudi Guiliani’s liberal social agenda just to keep Clinton out. Edwards has the most to gain by this scenario. Edwards unlike Obama has the national campaign experience, solid name recognition and more often better programs and agendas. Edwards is also a favorite of Democratic politicians struggling to hold onto seats in contentious districts and those hoping to knock off an incumbent GOP candidate. Many fear that Clinton has too many negatives and would be a detriment to their congressional campaigns.
Pollsters will continue to release their national polls but what counts in the end will be those that sit in Iowa living rooms and those casting ballots in New Hampshire polling stations. One loss for Clinton and all bets are off.