Three huge news stories today, all of which must give the “bomb Iran” lobby one giant headache.
Turkish Parliament Approves Iraq Invasion
…507 of the 550 MPs voted for the motion.
Caspian Summit a Triumph for Iran
a prominent message about the need to democratize the international order by erecting
effective barriers to the American “leviathan”, as shown by specific agreements reached at the summit, including prohibiting other countries from using the littoral states for attacks on one another “under any circumstances”, and disallowing any ship not flying the national flag of a littoral state on Caspian waters.
Supporters Flock to Karachi for Bhutto’s Return
Her Pakistan People’s Party hopes to see one million supporters gather to greet her in Karachi… the snail’s pace of the convoy may leave Bhutto vulnerable to suicide attacks and roadside bombs… also a risk of mass killings of supporters and stampedes.
To summarize:
Turkey is about to invade Kurdish-dominated Northern Iraq.
Russia has prohibited Caspian Sea countries from helping the US attack Iran.
The Pakistani government is in danger of being overthrown.
I don’t know where to begin here. Turkey says there is a terrorist threat coming at them from Iraq, so they have to launch an invasion. (Does that sound familiar?) Significantly, the part of Iraq they want to occupy contains huge oil reserves. The Kurdish “Peshmerga” will have no ability to withstand the Turkish military assault. They could, however, fight back by waging the sort of asymmetrical war that their Sunni countrymen are giving to the US military. If this happens, the only (relatively) secure part of Iraq will be as unstable and dangerous as the rest of the country. This is terrible news for the oil industry, who so far, has had a pretty sweet deal going in the kleptocracy that is Iraqi-Kurdistan.
Meanwhile, Russia has engineered a deal to deter the US from invading Iran. At a summit in Tehran, Caspian Sea leaders agreed that none of their states can be used to launch invasions against each other. No ships will be permitted to sail in the Caspian if they do not fly the flag of a Caspian nation. This is significant because aside from Russia, one of the parties to this agreement is Azerbaijan, America’s despotic regional friend. To attack Iran from the north, the US would require Azeri tactical support with supply lines running through the capital Baku. The US appears to have lost both.
The story about Pakistan is potentially the most troubling. Benazir Bhutto’s return is probably good news for democracy in Pakistan. However, the chaos that could easily and predictably result from her return could plunge Pakistan into the sort of crisis/opportunity that could give rise to a popular revolution and a coup. President-General Musharraf could be overthrown by Bhutto and her allies in a Ukrainian-style democratic revolution. Just as likely, however, is a revolt by Pakistan’s extreme right-wing which consists of Islamists from Pakistan’s Tribal region. This faction already has a popular leader in waiting. US ally Musharraf is being squeezed from all sides.
The potential end result of all of these developments is the aversion of a US war against Iran. The US has lost the ability to run supply routes through the Caspian Sea and the countries around it. They have also likely lost support and supply routes from Turkey. They are unlikely to get any support from Musharraf, who is essentially under siege in Pakistan.
The only staging grounds remaining for an attack on Iran are vulnerable at best. Given the likely outcomes of the three news stories, the US could be left with four ways into Iran. They could enter from Taliban-dominated sections of Afghanistan, from Shia-dominated sections of Eastern Iraq, from areas of Northern Iraq that may soon be controlled by the Turkish Army, or by a naval landing from the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea. The first three choices see supply routes threatened by angry locals, the fourth has landing US troops well within range of Iranian defences. Of course, the US could still launch an air campaign with long-range bombers, but this would not put boots on the ground. It appears that countries in the region have taken many US military options off the table.
Today’s news is really bad for US Imperalists. (It may be even worse for Kurdish and Pakistani civilians) The events of the next few weeks will have a tremendous impact on the future of Middle-Eastern geo-politics. They will also have an impact on all of us in the West; our lifestyles depend on Middle Eastern oil. Whatever happens, it seems that the consequences of the failure of US diplomacy are being realized. When it comes to statecraft, the Bush Administration has been completely incompetent. The poisoning of relations with Middle Eastern countries has jeopardized any future US military plans for the region. While this is probably good news, it may have grave long-term economic consequences. Middle Eastern nations are abandoning their former ally. This signals the start of a long, slow decline of US influence in the world. It also means that all of us who live in Western nations need to re-examine where we get our energy from, especially if we want to continue to live in the comfort that they we become accustomed to.
War With Iran Averted?
Three huge news stories today, all of which must give the “bomb Iran” lobby one giant headache.
Turkish Parliament Approves Iraq Invasion
…507 of the 550 MPs voted for the motion.
Caspian Summit a Triumph for Iran
a prominent message about the need to democratize the international order by erecting
effective barriers to the American “leviathan”, as shown by specific agreements reached at the summit, including prohibiting other countries from using the littoral states for attacks on one another “under any circumstances”, and disallowing any ship not flying the national flag of a littoral state on Caspian waters.
Supporters Flock to Karachi for Bhutto’s Return
Her Pakistan People’s Party hopes to see one million supporters gather to greet her in Karachi… the snail’s pace of the convoy may leave Bhutto vulnerable to suicide attacks and roadside bombs… also a risk of mass killings of supporters and stampedes.
To summarize:
Turkey is about to invade Kurdish-dominated Northern Iraq.
Russia has prohibited Caspian Sea countries from helping the US attack Iran.
The Pakistani government is in danger of being overthrown.
I don’t know where to begin here. Turkey says there is a terrorist threat coming at them from Iraq, so they have to launch an invasion. (Does that sound familiar?) Significantly, the part of Iraq they want to occupy contains huge oil reserves. The Kurdish “Peshmerga” will have no ability to withstand the Turkish military assault. They could, however, fight back by waging the sort of asymmetrical war that their Sunni countrymen are giving to the US military. If this happens, the only (relatively) secure part of Iraq will be as unstable and dangerous as the rest of the country. This is terrible news for the oil industry, who so far, has had a pretty sweet deal going in the kleptocracy that is Iraqi-Kurdistan.
Meanwhile, Russia has engineered a deal to deter the US from invading Iran. At a summit in Tehran, Caspian Sea leaders agreed that none of their states can be used to launch invasions against each other. No ships will be permitted to sail in the Caspian if they do not fly the flag of a Caspian nation. This is significant because aside from Russia, one of the parties to this agreement is Azerbaijan, America’s despotic regional friend. To attack Iran from the north, the US would require Azeri tactical support with supply lines running through the capital Baku. The US appears to have lost both.
The story about Pakistan is potentially the most troubling. Benazir Bhutto’s return is probably good news for democracy in Pakistan. However, the chaos that could easily and predictably result from her return could plunge Pakistan into the sort of crisis/opportunity that could give rise to a popular revolution and a coup. President-General Musharraf could be overthrown by Bhutto and her allies in a Ukrainian-style democratic revolution. Just as likely, however, is a revolt by Pakistan’s extreme right-wing which consists of Islamists from Pakistan’s Tribal region. This faction already has a popular leader in waiting. US ally Musharraf is being squeezed from all sides.
The potential end result of all of these developments is the aversion of a US war against Iran. The US has lost the ability to run supply routes through the Caspian Sea and the countries around it. They have also likely lost support and supply routes from Turkey. They are unlikely to get any support from Musharraf, who is essentially under siege in Pakistan.
The only staging grounds remaining for an attack on Iran are vulnerable at best. Given the likely outcomes of the three news stories, the US could be left with four ways into Iran. They could enter from Taliban-dominated sections of Afghanistan, from Shia-dominated sections of Eastern Iraq, from areas of Northern Iraq that may soon be controlled by the Turkish Army, or by a naval landing from the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea. The first three choices see supply routes threatened by angry locals, the fourth has landing US troops well within range of Iranian defences. Of course, the US could still launch an air campaign with long-range bombers, but this would not put boots on the ground. It appears that countries in the region have taken many US military options off the table.
Today’s news is really bad for US Imperalists. (It may be even worse for Kurdish and Pakistani civilians) The events of the next few weeks will have a tremendous impact on the future of Middle-Eastern geo-politics. They will also have an impact on all of us in the West; our lifestyles depend on Middle Eastern oil. Whatever happens, it seems that the consequences of the failure of US diplomacy are being realized. When it comes to statecraft, the Bush Administration has been completely incompetent. The poisoning of relations with Middle Eastern countries has jeopardized any future US military plans for the region. While this is probably good news, it may have grave long-term economic consequences. Middle Eastern nations are abandoning their former ally. This signals the start of a long, slow decline of US influence in the world. It also means that all of us who live in Western nations need to re-examine where we get our energy from, especially if we want to continue to live in the comfort that they we become accustomed to.