BartBlog

NH Frontrunners Will Stumble to the Hope-Gropers Once AgainAll afternoon on Friday Jan. 5th, following the Iowa caucuses, and continuing over the weekend, various bloviators of Conventional Wisdom on CNN and MSNBC spread it on thick that John McCain was going to do well in New Hampshire, perhaps even win it, due to ‘independent’ voters swarming to the polls to vote for the ‘maverick’ Republican, just as they did in 2000. (Media Matters has a good rundown of the despicable cheerleading of the BM Punditrocracy for McCain here.)Of course, this is horse pucky with bells on. Anyone who has been sentient and paying attention for the past seven years knows two things: 1) The John McCain of 2008 is not the John McCain of 2000. Today’s John McCain has twisted himself into various improbable pretzel shapes desperately trying to play to every possible GOP primary voter. (And I don’t want to hear any muttering about his ‘unpopular’ support for the Iraq War — it’s still popular among what’s left of the GOP base.) He is the living exemplar of the saying “A friend to everybody is a friend to nobody.” (Well, everybody Republican anyway.) The John McCain of 2000 attracted independents and conservative Repubs because he stood up to the nutty Christopublicans and conniving corporatists backing Bush Junior; the current hunched Quisling genuflects to them and kisses the emperor’s ring. Consequently, he has lost the support of the GOP-leaning independents and Goldwater conservatives he enjoyed back then; in fact, they can’t stand him these days. 2) The Republican Party is finished on the national level for at least eight years; it’s 1932 all over again and they are poised to lose in a landslide in 2008.On Meet the Press Sunday, McCain exalted that we were ‘winning’ in Iraq; that he was right and the surge was working, except, gosh darn it, we’re still fighting that pesky Al-Qaeda there after nearly five years at war. The Pentagon has estimated there are approximately 5,000 Al-Qaeda operatives in Iraq; somehow, with 150,000 US troops and the billion-plus dollars we’re spending every day to keep them there, we can’t get rid of 5,000 ‘operatives’ that even most Iraqis don’t want in their country? That doesn’t sound like winning, that sounds like more Bush BS, and that’s McCain’s problem in a nutshell: he’s full of Bush BS like that and when things go wrong, as they are bound to, he’ll have to backtrack and make excuses, as he’s done in the past — this is hardly the ‘Straight Talker’ the BM keeps trying to sell, this is the pathetic shaky hypocrite who disgusts the public these days.If McCain is counting on independents and disaffected Republicans voting for him, he’s out of luck; if he’s expecting Christopublicans to come out for him, he’s hasn’t heard of Mike Huckabee. That leaves a few dozen neocons who like to hear an idiot blabber that we’ll be in Iraq for a hundred years, providing a nice negative ad for one of his competitors. The other 99.5 percent of voters will be avoiding Cap’n Blinky like a bottle of hot sauce in a bowl of New England clam chowder. Prediction: McCain won’t finish in the top three in New Hampshire either.Chris “Man Crush” Matthews can spin it as another glorious victory for the hairy-chested warrior John McCain, his current heartthrob. “Fourth place! Wonderful — what a great strategy! He’s conserving his money for the big states down the line!” The CW was also giddy over Romney’s superior, well-financed organization in the Live Free or Die Screaming State; surely this will give Mitt his first primary win! Even though Legions of Romney Regulars didn’t work too well in Iowa, we are reminded that NH is different — it’s kind of like a real election; naturally, the corporately-vetted Plastic Man with carloads of cash will prevail here. Yet, Mitt sparks no heat or light in his canned public appearances, and they’ve now become occasions of rare hilarity; in an “Ask Mitt Anything” event in NH Friday, a sweaty half-mad Romney, so Country Club Republican Establishment he no doubt has a personalized executive golf cart, actually announced that he’s the — swallow that coffee first — candidate of ‘change.’ He even repeated the word a half-dozen times in case anyone missed it. Oh, brother — he’s so bughouse desperate he’s stealing lines from the Dems. Perhaps Willy Mitt meant that, with his penchant for open-toed ideological footwear, he is the candidate of change — every few hours.Another thing the BM CW missed: New Hampshire is very close to Massachusetts — just ask someone from Mass.: Romney is as loathed on his home turf as Junior is nationally; it’s not hard to imagine Granite Staters having a low opinion of him as well, along with nearly everyone else with half a brain. This is not surprising: Mitt really stands for nothing except getting himself elected; read his ‘policies,’ it’s all tap-dancing happy talk and vague propositions meant to cajole right-wing yokels out of their votes: he’ll keep doing everything you like and stop everything you don’t like, whatever that might be; a Man for All Seasons, a Republican Groucho Marx: “Those are my principles. If you don’t like them, I have others.” Mike Huckabee will mop up the Christopublicans and some of the conservatives which leaves slim pickings for Mitt to exploit. Ron Paul will pick up any independents or old-line conservatives to score second base. Mitt’s money will buy him third place, but he’ll be far behind Huck.Whither Fred Thompson? Once you get past the phony Dixie-tinged home-style folksiness, you hit a core of conservative chicken-fried nothing. His campaign is too far gone on life support for even the best spin doctor to resurrect. He may limp into South Carolina, but that’s it. Likely angling for Veep with McCain or maybe even Huckabee.Rudy Giuliani? Who’s he?Over in Iowa Thursday night, Hillary was surrounded on stage during her not-quite-a-concession speech by every retread gasbag they could dig up — Prime examples: Madeleine Albright and some old coot who looked like he had to pee next to her. It looked like the signing of the Yalta pact, except Hillary had to embarrassingly elbow her way past Bill and some of the other ‘merry makers’ to get to the mic. Who is advising this woman — is this the way to drum up younger voters? Word is, Hillary’s brusque ‘professional’ Iowa staff was as tight as a tick and twice as annoying — they tended to irritate more voters than they encouraged. Note to Hillary: If you want a chance at winning this thing, fire all the deadwood, starting at the top. Get rid of Fools on the Hill capos Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson to start — they both are so buried in the Beltway Swamphole they can’t see what’s going on out in the real America. It may be too late for Hillary anyway, but these two are nearly as inept as nine-time Dem White House loser Bob Schrum. And who in hell came up with “Ready” as an inspirational campaign slogan? Send him or her packing with Flick and Flack as well.Barack Obama continues to glide along, with help from his new pal John Edwards. At the ABC debate Saturday from which Dennis Kucinich was pointedly excluded, they both tag-teamed to take down Hillary, Edwards apparently thinking that he can win in a head-to-head with Obama. Maybe he’s right, but it’s a risky strategy. Barack has the charisma — some have compared him to RFK — and now the ‘winner’s heft’ coming out of Iowa; Edwards has the populism but how well will that sell? In this country, celebrity trumps substance, and Obama has the celebrity. Could Edwards be seeking a second run as VP to Obama? Possibly, and perhaps Edwards has decided that’s the best he can do this year. If Barack is elected and does a halfway decent job, E’s got nowhere to go for eight years — maybe he’d rather spend that time as Obama’s Veep than sitting it out on the sidelines, and it would be a smart move for Obama. If Edwards threw his support to Barack right before Super Tuesday, that would wipe out Hillary and the Obama/Edwards team could start getting ready for the Big Game in November while the Republicans were still stripping meat from each other’s bones in the primaries. Obama/Edwards? It’s politics, and strange pairings happen: look at the moderate former FDR Democrat Eisenhower and the McCarthyite commie-hunter Nixon in 1952, far right Reagan and ‘Voodoo Economics’ Poppy Bush in 1980, and Bush the Elder and certified moron Dan Quayle in 1988.Bill Richardson is nearly out — Gov. Lumpy, for all his years of experience and progressive even-handed proposals, is just too bland and moon-faced in the Year of the Skinny Kid with a Funny Name. Say hello to fourth place, Bill.The Tattlesnake therefore proffers that NH will be a repeat of Iowa: Obama, Edwards and Hillary, one, two , three, and if Mrs. Clinton doesn’t come up with a winning strategy soon, she’ll be buried on Super Tuesday.