I will fully admit that at this point in any campaign I follow I am a complete junkie for daily polling numbers. Given the real or imagined fluctuations in polls, our current presidential run between Obama and McCain has been particularly hard on a poll addict like myself.
To begin with there are far too many polls tracking the elections. To make it a little more digestible, but no less addictive, some Internet sites have begun compiling daily poll results and posting a daily average. Real Clear Politics is a site that for one has done a good job of keeping me completely hooked on polls by keeping the partisan ones out so as not to skew the polls and therefore pissing me off. I check daily to see the spread and each day its just a little bit different.
Another issue is the averages. If you check the polls used to compile averages there always seems to be one that doesn’t seem to fit and skews the numbers. One such poll right now is today’s Associated Press-GfK poll that shows Obama and McCain running basically even. Problem with the AP poll is no one else on the planet shows the race that way. Today’s Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. Many others show Obama up by at least four points.
So what gives? Why does the AP poll show something completely different. My junkie mind cant rap around it and it causes me a day of anxiety until the next polls numbers show up. What gives me comfort is the fact that most of the polls I have digested that have come after the last debate show McCain gained a tiny bit of ground then promptly lost it.
Wait….wait… a new poll is out. Sorry got to go.