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Thomas Schaller, Salon, September 17, 2007

Those who have been closely following the politics of the Democratic primaries may have noticed that someone is missing — and I’m not referring to Bob Shrum, the Rev. Al Sharpton or an as-yet-undiscovered “Gravel Girl.”

I’m talking about the white male voter, or at least a certain long-coveted variety thereof. He is variously known as “NASCAR dad” — that shirt-sleeved, straight-talkin’, these-colors-don’t-run fella who votes his cultural values above all else — or “Bubba,” as Steve Jarding and Dave “Mudcat” Saunders affectionately call him in their book, “Foxes in the Henhouse.” Start looking on milk cartons for Bubba because he has vanished, and not a moment too soon: The Democratic obsession with the down-home, blue-collar, white male voter, that heartbreaker who crossed the aisle to the Republicans many decades ago, may finally be coming to a merciful end.

The simplest explanation for Bubba’s absence to date is that none of the 2008 Democratic presidential contenders provides an obvious home for his vote. Despite accusations that Hillary Clinton is prone to dropping her “g’s” when talking to rural or Southern audiences, it’s difficult to imagine the former first lady making overt appeals to a group that regards her with something verging on rabid disgust. Barack Obama? The former Chicago street activist is not easily mistaken for a good ole boy. Ditto for Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson.

But the underlying reason may be demographics. In 1952, according to calculations performed by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz for Salon, white males were nearly half the American electorate. Thanks to the recent growth in the Latino population, however, the white male share is now dropping about a percentage point a year, accelerating a decline that began with the increased enfranchisement of African-Americans in the civil rights era. In next year’s election, white males may account for fewer than one out of three voters. Bubba is no longer a kingmaker.

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