A Brief Breakdown of Today’s Most Notable Primaries
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary: One of the best political ads I’ve seen in some time is Rep. Joe Sestak’s spot featuring Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter admitting he changed parties solely to get reelected. The old lizard practically hisses when he snarls the word “reelected” and you could easily imagine his desiccated Dorian-Gray-on-the-easel face asking Eve if she wanted a bite of his apple. Mr. Magic Bullet Theory has shown himself time and again to be a coldly calculating old-line politician at heart, and now it’s caught up with him. The last polls I saw had Sestak and Specter running even, but I don’t think it will be that close – the solons of the Big Media (BM) Punditsphere don’t seem to have noticed that Arlen has no real Democratic constituency in PA, unless it’s 80-year-old vipers, and, contrary to Dem Gov. Ed Rendell’s public support, the Edster is not about to exercise his state political muscle to shoehorn a creature like Specter into office again, especially after Obama and Biden politely flipped Arlen off. I call it Sestak by 10 points. (Tip to Dems: Follow Sestak’s lead and run ads showing your GOP opponent making an ass of him or herself in their own words. They work.)
Arkansas Democratic Primary: Once again the BM has managed to miss the story here, as they did in Connecticut when Ned Lamont beat Joe Lieberman in the Dem primary. As in Specter’s case, what was Lieberman’s core base of support? Wealthy insurance company execs, AIPAC and Republicans. Why would the GOP back Quisling Joe? Because they knew he was a closet Republican with electable name recognition who would help with their issues and screw up the Dem majority in the Senate. But this won’t happen down in Clintonland – sitting Dem. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, like Lieberman, has very narrow Dem support and none of it particularly enthusiastic, and the GOP hates her. On the other side, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has the same kind of avid progressive ground game Lamont had in CT. It may not even be close but, if it goes to a run-off, Halter will win the day: He’s got the eager troops; Blanche has the establishment Dem coffee klatch. Halter by 5 points.
Kentucky Republican Primary: Let’s keep it short and sweet: A Libertarian who believes in legalizing drugs and ending our wars overseas, Rep. Ron Paul’s son Rand Paul, is about to beat the pants off of the official GOP-endorsed candidate, Trey Grayson. This election may be a heads-up ‘game changer’ with a long shadow – GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell’s KY machine is dead and a Red State is heaving toward purplish Libertarianism rather than Mitch’s grisly Bush Neoconnery. The bonus is that the always-wrong and unfailingly unpopular (except to the BM Punditocracy) Dick Cheney has wholeheartedly endorsed Grayson, the sure kiss of death. Paul by at least 10 points and probably much more.
Update, May 19, 2010: Here’s how I did:
Pennsylvania: Sestak beat Specter, but I didn’t cover the spread – Sestak won by only 9 points instead of 10.
Arkansas: Headed for a run-off with Halter and Lincoln neck-and-neck. I’ll stick with Halter by 5 points in the run-off.
Kentucky: Rand Paul walloped Trey Grayson by more than 20 points. Although this election is being framed by the BM Punditburo as a victory for the Tea Partiers, do they mean the original Ron Paul Libertarian tea partiers or the astroturf Dick Armey-Glenn Beck corporate Teabaggers? Methinks it’s the latter, and the BM has it wrong again.
© 2010 RS Janes. LTSaloon.org.
The Tattlesnake – The Bibi Tweak, the GOP Geek and the BP Leak Edition
– Does Not Compute:
If you believe the official Israeli government story regarding their boarding of those humanitarian aid ships that were bound for Gaza, Israeli commandos, thought to be among the toughest, best trained and equipped military outfits in the world, can be easily disarmed, beaten and stabbed by out-of-shape amateurs wielding metal rods. Either the Israeli commando force has turned into vanilla pudding or Netanyahu’s government is lying through its teeth regarding the events surrounding the deaths of at least nine aid workers aboard those ships. I’ll leave it to you to decide which is more believable.
– Old Soldiers (and Sailors) Never Lie, But They Do:
Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, who awarded himself a military citation, ‘Intelligence Officer of the Year,’ he never received and even boasted about it in Congress and in his official bio; and who also claimed on his website he was part of Bush’s Iraq invasion when he wasn’t, just lost the race for Barack Obama’s US Senate seat in Illinois. Well, that’s if his Dem opponent, Alexi Giannoulias has the nachos to run an ad showing Kirk blabbering on about the mythical citation and then citing the fact that Kirk just made it up, and pointing our as well that Kirk was really safely in Washington when he said he was serving in Iraq. The tagline: ‘How can you trust Kirk to represent you honestly when he can’t even honestly represent himself?’ Sure, the same can be said about Democrat Richard Blumenthal in CT who inflated his military record to service in Vietnam, and you can bet the GOP will be milking that for all it’s worth. (Side Note: Vets never forget where they served or what medals or citations they received, and they don’t ‘misspeak’ when discussing them. Kirk’s full of it when he says otherwise, and so is Blumenthal, for that matter. A pox on both of these cheesy military resume-bloaters!)
– The World Turned Upside Down:
MSNBC reported this afternoon (6/2) that crude oil has hit the barrier shores of Mississippi and Alabama – you know, the ‘safe areas’ according the BP — and west Florida is next. While BP CEO Tony Hayward continues making cringing pronouncements that would befit a ditzy Monty Python character – yes, Tony, those 11 people who were killed on your Deepwater Horizon rig would no doubt like their lives back, too, as well as the tens of thousands who depend on the Gulf for their livelihoods – watch for BP to declare bankruptcy soon and split up into several smaller companies. Bankruptcy means what’s left of BP will only be paying for a fraction, if any, of the cost of the clean-up and, regardless of Eric Holder’s tough prosecutor stance, there won’t be any senior BP execs heading for jail. (Most of them are in the UK and the Brits likely won’t extradite.) Uncle Sucker, that’s you and me fellow taxpayer, will get stuck with most of the tab and the generations of suffering that comes with it. I only hope our redneck friends down in the Gulf states get the hint and stop electing corrupt Big Oil-funded boobs to office; I hope the rest of us get the message that it’s time to get off the oil teat permanently and switch to renewable energy. Okay, and I want world peace and a flat belly by tomorrow, too.
© 2010 RS Janes. LTSaloon.org.